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WASHINGTON, DC, US, April 12, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
The cost to install a 2 kW residential solar PV
system in the United States will drop from US$8,363 in 2005 to
$3,744 in 2030, while system efficiency increases from 0.16 to 0.25,
according to the Department of Energy.
In the commercial sector, the cost of an average 25 kW solar
system will drop from $5,819 to $3,120 in constant dollars over the
period, while the average size also increases to 45 kW, the DOE
explains in its ‘Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006.' The
document contains a detailed explanation of predictions for capital
costs for residential and commercial renewable energy technologies
that are used in its annual energy outlooks.
The Renewable Fuels Module includes information for central-station
and grid-connected generation technologies, including
hydroelectricity, biomass, geothermal, landfill gas, solar thermal
electric, solar photovoltaic and wind
energy. It contains natural resource supply estimates representing
regional opportunities for renewable energy development, and is
based on investment tax credits currently legislated in the Energy
Policy Acts of 1992 and 2005, with production tax credits for wind,
geothermal, LFG and some types of hydroelectric and biomass-fueled
plants.
“Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market
penetration, from hydroelectric power, which was one of the first
electric generation technologies, to newer power systems using
biomass, geothermal, LFG, solar and wind energy,” it states. “In
some cases, they require technological innovation to become cost
effective or have inherent characteristics, such as intermittency,
which make their penetration into the electricity grid dependent
upon new methods for integration within utility system plans or upon
the availability of low-cost energy storage systems.”
In addition to projections for green power, the 2006 outlook
contains projections of renewable energy use for industrial and
residential consumption of biomass, solar water heating, green fuels
and residential and commercial geothermal heat pumps. It says the
additional applications for renewables outside energy markets, such
as direct solar thermal industrial applications or direct lighting,
off-grid generation and direct geothermal use in district heating
and greenhouses are “minor” and not included in the projections.
Overnight capital costs for solar PV will decrease from $3,931 per
kW in 2010 to $2,832 in 2030 (constant 2004 dollars) under DOE’s
reference scenario, while the change under the ‘high renewables’
scenario would be $3,848 to $2,523 and from $4,138 to $3,882 under
the ‘low renewables’ scenario. Overnight capital costs exclude
interest charges but factor in contingency, learning and
technological optimism factors, excluding regional multipliers.
For wind, the decline is smaller, from $1,153 to $1,149 per kW under
the reference scenario, while it declines from $1,150 to $1,080
under the ‘high’ and remains static at $1,167 under the ‘low’
renewables scenario. Solar thermal goes from $2,605 to $2,030, and
from $2,550 to $1,760 and from $2,742 to $2,707 per kW under the two
scenarios.
Overnight capital costs for geothermal increase from $1,916 in 2010
to $2,639 in 2030 under the reference, while the ‘high renewables’
scenario increases from $1,916 to $2,271, and from $2,013 to $2,665
under the ‘low renewables’ scenario. For biomass, DOE predicts a
decline from $1,763 to $1,458 under the reference, and from $1,673
to $1,261 and from $1,780 to $1,558 per kW under the high and low
renewables scenarios.
Capacity factors remain static for geothermal at 0.95 over both the
20-year period and regardless of which scenario is considered, while
solar PV also remains static at 0.21 and solar thermal at 0.31,
while wind could decline from a high of 0.46 under the ‘high
renewables’ scenario to a low of 0.37 under the ‘low’ scenario. The
capacity factors for wind are based on regional resource
availability and generation characteristics.
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