US crude stocks likely to build 1.9 million barrels: analysts

New York (Platts)--18Apr2006

US oil inventory data due to be released Wednesday by the Energy
Information Administration and American Petroleum Institute are expected to
show a 1.9 million barrel build in commercial crude stocks, according to
analysts surveyed by Platts Tuesday.

"Crude stocks should indicate a small increase due largely to an expected
rebound in imports of 100,000 to 200,000 b/d," energy consultant Jim
Ritterbusch said in a report. "Although runs should also be up, an expected
drop in West Coast crude supply could easily counter this increased demand in
the Gulf Coast region."

Refinery utilization is expected to edge up 0.4% to 86%, based on last
week's EIA report.

"Refinery runs will likely show an increase as a result of post
maintenance and post hurricane restarts, especially in PADD III," Ritterbusch
added. However, restarts may be partially offset by several glitches last
week.

Analysts were projecting a 2.7 million barrel decline in gasoline stocks.

"Expect yet another week of steep gasoline draws as winter-grade is
shoved downstream -- legal to sell it at retail through end-May, though its
two and a half weeks away from its sell-by date at refineries and terminals"
Deborah White, energy analyst at Societe Generale, said in a report. "
Gasoline inventories have fallen 17.94 million barrels over the past six
weeks, causing the surplus against the five-year average to erode and making
comparisons against year-ago levels to turn negative.

Consensus estimates were expecting a 1.75 million barrel draw in
distillates.

"We expect distillate production to move up to 3.7 million b/d on higher
runs and a higher simple refinery yield," Katherine Spector, energy analyst at
J.P.Morgan, said in a report. Yet, 3.7 million b/d of supply would be
insufficient to prevent another week of declines should demand stay constant.

--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com

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