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PALO ALTO, California, US, April 5, 2006
(Refocus Weekly)
Wind has the potential to grow from 11 billion
kWh in 2003 to 35 b-kWh by 2025, while solar can increase from 1 to
6 b-kWh, under a scenario developed by the U.S. utility industry.
The Electric Power Research Institute has unveiled four new
scenarios which explore a range of technologies critical to meet
future energy needs. The scenarios do not predict the future but
serve as planning tools for utility executives to prioritize
technological improvements.
The ‘Double Whammy’ scenario factors both high prices for natural
gas and high societal concerns about environmental costs which,
together, produce a “more than proportionate share in their impact
on the economy.” It reflects a “significant change in beliefs and
values of the majority of Americans, industry, and government
leaders toward the position that anthropogenic changes in global
climate are occurring, that they are harmful, and that they must be
addressed soon.”
Under that scenario, six renewables are considered to be potential
key technologies which, combined, would increase output from 364
b-kWh in 2003 to 491 b-kWh in 2025. Hydroelectricity is the major
technology, increasing from 275 to 307 b-kWh over the period,
followed by biomass (37 to 81), geothermal (18 to 33), wind (11 to
35), municipal solid waste (22 to 29) and solar PV and solar thermal
(rising from 1 to 6 b-kWh over the period). Biomass includes
combined heat & power and co-firing with coal, while MSW includes
landfill gas.
Under the Double Whammy scenario, the initial focus is on
conservation, improved end-use efficiencies, combined heating and
renewables but, over time, “innovations occur that generate
surprising impacts on efficiency, cost and environmental quality
while delivering enhanced features.” Clean coal technologies emerge
as a transition fuel leading to a zero-emission future, and nuclear
also plays an important role in the generation mix of this scenario.
The scenarios explore different assumptions about the evolution of
fuel prices and CO2 costs and, now that scenario frameworks have
been developed, specific technical implications of each scenario
will be developed and published by EPRI this summer.
Many people see opportunities to expand the use of renewables as
well as advanced nuclear and advanced storage systems, and officials
suggest that “many of these technologies would find wider use in the
market if traditional energy technologies were paying their full
cost, especially related to environmental externalities,” the report
explains. “The majority of energy industry leaders are concerned
about imposing such costs because it would challenge their sunk
investments; nevertheless, a growing niche of business leaders in
some of the biggest companies are beginning to see new possibilities
and opportunities for profit in creating new energy systems and
models of service.”
“The 2008 national elections prove pivotal in shifting U.S.
environmental policies to a new level,” it speculates. “Following
several years of destructive storms in the Southern states and
melting ice caps, environmental concerns rise to the top of the
political agenda” and the winning Presidential candidate challenges
voters to create a cleaner future and to develop a policy that
demonstrates U.S. concern over the environment.
“Consumers need time to learn about new technology options and
adjust to their particular features,” it explains. “Just as cell
phones went from ‘bricks’ to photo-taking flip phones over a 20-year
period, new solar designs, emerging fuel cells and battery systems
offer new features related to cleanliness, mobility, reliability,
security and power quality.”
“Engineers accustomed to running coal plants have to learn how to
match wind energy systems with hydro-based firming and energy
storage services and to run chemical plants that produce gas from
coal and capture CO2,” it adds. It will take 15 years for changes to
make an impact but, by 2020, “long-term investments and risk taking
by companies with foresight are beginning to pay off in growing
earnings.”
“By this time, utility executives are boldly forecasting the end of
the era of natural gas, just as they had dropped oil in the 1980s
and 1990s,” and the transition to a more modern energy base is
accomplished without much sacrifice in economic growth. “Market
responses lead to collaboration and sustained investment in research
and development of new and alternative energy products and services
to meet more stringent environmental requirements. This world has a
great role for nuclear energy and renewable sources and energy
efficiency. Distributed generation might play a key role in a system
integrated with renewables.”
EPRI was established in 1973 as an independent centre for public
interest energy and environmental research. Its members represent
90% of the electricity generated in the United States.
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