Britain shows
remarkable ability to absorb workforce growth, but we still need more
jobs OUTLOOK
Aug 17, 2006 - Independent-London
Author(s): Jeremy Warner
Good news. Unemployment is at a six-year high. For anyone out of
employment and seeking ajob, this might seem a joke in poor taste, yet
the truth is that there is more to celebrate than to lament in
yesterday's clutch of labour data.
The reason unemployment is rising is not because there are fewer
jobs. On the contrary, despite the doom-laden prophecies of many
pundits, jobs continue to be created at a reasonably pleasing pace, if a
somewhat slower one than we've seen in the past. Rather, it is because
the workforce is also expanding at a near-record rate.
This is only partly down to Jan Polski and his team of immigrant
builders. Just as important are rapidly rising levels of labour
participation, particularly among women and older men. More of us want,
or have to, work than ever before. The trouble is that the number of
people who want a job in the UK, from overseas and from the existing
population, is rising more strongly than the number of jobs available.
The Work Foundation calculates that the economy would have needed to
create 110,000 jobs in the past quarter to stop unemployment going up.
I'm not sure the UK has ever achieved such a high level of job creation,
and in today's sluggish economic conditions, it is falling quite a long
way short.
Present levels of job creation are no more than average. Because of
the consumer slowdown, it is particularly poor in retail and hospitality
right now. But nor is all the job creation currently taking place in the
public sector. Jobs in business services are growing as strongly as
those in health and education.
Unfortunately, it is not by enough. The rise in the jobless rate over
the past year is the biggest out of all the OECD nations. Nonetheless,
the most remarkable feature of these figures is the UK's continued
ability to accommodate such substantial growth in the workforce.
In fact, the official figures probably understate the true size of
the phenomenon, since much of the new immigrant labour finds its way
into the cash economy and therefore doesn't show up in the ONS data.
Wherever it comes from, the rapidly growing workforce is one of the
primary reasons for thinking the Bank of England was wrong to increase
interest rates earlier this month. Minutes to the meeting of the
Monetary Policy Committee, which took this decision, published
yesterday, show a quite marked divergence of view over the significance
and impact of this growth in the workforce.
For David Blanchflower, the MPC's newest addition, it was enough to
make him vote against the interest rate rise. I'm sure he is right about
this. Rising labour participation and immigration are creating greater
levels of slack in the economy than the Bank has built into its
projections. If there's more capacity, the economy can grow at a faster
rate without triggering inflation than has perhaps been possible in the
past.
Even those who voted for a rate rise seemed partially to acknowledge
this point. The primary reason for raising rates is identified in the
minutes as this autumn's expected spike in inflation to close to 3 per
cent, which the MPC thought might lead to inflationary expectations
rising just before the majority of next year's pay settlements. The
presiding view was that if the decision proves premature, it could
easily be reversed. Rising levels of immigration may not be to
everyone's taste, but at least it is helping to keep interest rates low.
British Energy: still struggling
British Energy was the biggest faller in the FTSE 350 yesterday
despite the release of quarterly profit numbers which beat market
forecasts by a country mile. The reason was that for the third year
running it now looks as if the nuclear power operator will miss its
output targets.
The chief executive, Bill Coley, insists that his employees are still
on notice to meet the target come what may, but they've got quite a bit
of catching up to do and he concedes that achieving output of 63
terawatt hours for the year to the end of March 2007 now looks "very
challenging". Instead, he expects the company to come in at somewhere in
between 61 and 63 TWh.
Exceptionally high energy prices for the time being are supporting
record profitability, yet it only requires these prices to slip by a
relatively small margin for the company to be back in the red. With
electricity prices at rock bottom a few years back, the company became
insolvent and had to be bailed out by the Government.
One of the characteristics of nuclear power generation is high fixed
operating costs, so to remain economic British Energy must maintain as
high a load factor as possible. Any enforced shut downs, or "outages" to
use the industry jargon, either for safety or operational reasons,
severely damages this endeavour.
The present slow pace of improvement in load factor owes more to
years of past underinvestment than anything else. But worryingly, Mr
Coley admits to a degree of human error in the latest series of outages.
Although apparently limited to just one episode at Torness, such human
failings raise questions about the quality of management and, by
extension, British Energy's ability to achieve continued further
improvements in output.
As long as the oil price remains high, this may not seem to matter
too much. But if Lord Browne of Madingley, the chief executive of BP, is
right in thinking that eventually oil will subside to a normalised level
of about $40 (pounds 21) a barrel, then British Energy could once more
be in some trouble. In any case, Mr Coley needs very substantially to
improve his operational performance to justify the present share price.
At the time of the last rescue, the Government acquired a 65 per cent
share stake in British Energy in return for assuming liability for the
company's decommissioning costs. It plans to sell these shares to
investors this autumn.
As the Commons Trade and Industry Select Committee points out in a
report published yesterday, estimates of the costs of nuclear
decommissioning just keep on rising. Even the present one is likely very
considerably to understate the eventual reality. Since the proceeds of
the share sale are to be set aside to help defray these costs, the
Government is more than usually keen to secure the best possible price.
Yesterday's statement hardly provides the most conducive of backdrops.
Perhaps the most desirable solution to the British Energy "problem",
then, would be for it to be acquired outright by the world's most
experienced and successful nuclear power operator, Electricite de
France. EdF already has substantial electricity distribution and power
generation assets in this country, so there may be competition issues to
address, but assuming EdF were willing it would certainly provide an
eloquent answer to the many questions that surround the future of
nuclear power generation in this country.
As things stand, there is virtually no chance of privately financed,
new nuclear build in the UK, despite Government and industry insistence
to the contrary. The City could not be persuaded to invest without
market subvention or Government subsidy.
Yet perhaps EdF, which successfully services the French market
largely through nuclear sources, might risk the necessary investment off
its own back, particularly if it were able to do so from the platform of
an existing British nuclear operation. The Government needs fully to
explore these options with EdF before haring off down the path of
another possibly doomed stock market offering.
Plainly there would be political sensitivities in selling the
remnants of Britain's civil nuclear capability to foreign interests, but
if we can sell our airports to the Spanish, why not our nuclear power
stations to the French? The Government would undoubtedly get more bangs
for its bucks by going down this route. If Gordon Brown, the Chancellor,
fancies it, he already has a useful point of contact. His brother,
Andrew, is EdF's London head of media relations.
The rapidly growing workforce is one of the primary reasons for
thinking the Bank of England was wrong to increase rates
j.warner@independent.co.uk
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