Ken Silverstein EnergyBiz Insider Editor-in-Chief

Global temperatures have risen about one degree over the past 100 years while the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that is thought to cause global warming has jumped about 30 percent. All agree to this point. But, divergence occurs over who or what is to blame for the increased CO2.

A group of scientists recently testified on Capitol Hill that humans are responsible for the earth's warming and the result is that temperatures are 8 degrees to 10 degrees hotter than they were 1,000 years ago. The consequence of that is record floods and heat. Indeed, University of Texas scientists reported in the journal Science that Greenland's glaciers are melting annually to the tune of 36 cubic miles of ice -- and it won't ease up.

"The fact that we don't have a plan is really disturbing," adds Judith Curry, head of Georgia Institute of Technology's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, in testimony before Congress. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change at the United Nations agrees, saying that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate."

Despite some uncertainties, most in the scientific community say that climate science is as strong as ever. The rest of the world, furthermore, has embraced the attitude that humans are causing most of the climate change and have been trying to solve the problem. Even skeptics of global warming agree with this, albeit they think the actions unfounded. They argue, instead, that the scientists who champion more regulations to clamp down on carbon emissions are dependent on federal funding. Therefore, any scientist who disagrees loses their funding.

"Ambiguous scientific statements about climate are hyped by those with a vested interest in alarm, thus raising the political stakes for policymakers who provide the funds for more science research to feed more alarm to increase the political stakes," writes Richard Lindzen, a professor of atmospheric science at MIT in the Wall Street Journal. Other experts say that temperatures have gone through previous warming -- and cooling -- phases over the last 2,000 years and that the current warming trend will likely ease.

Fossil fuels provide about 80 percent of the world's energy. This is where most of the carbon emissions emanate. Coal is the biggest source. With natural gas prices gyrating between $13 per million BTUs after last year's big hurricane and $6 per million BTUs now, coal is becoming more attractive from a price angle. At least 130 new coal plants are being proposed across the U.S., leading the Energy Information Administration to project a 66 percent increase in coal-based power production and a 43 percent increase in CO2 emissions by 2030 if no pollution controls on such releases are required.

Coal's Role

What to do about all this? The Kyoto Protocol, which was implemented in 2005 and which requires most of its signatories to reduce their CO2 emissions by 5 percent from their 1990 levels and all before 2012, tries to combat the issue. Still, scientists who espouse carbon caps say that the industrialized countries will have difficulty achieving their goals and any progress would be offset by increased global productivity.

Meantime, the United States, which accounts for 25 percent of all global CO2 emissions, is currently not a party to the pact; rather, it would tie emissions targets to economic incentives. To push things along, seven Northeast states have developed their own plan. Under the so-called Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, they will implement a cap-and-trade program to lower CO2 emissions -- the first mandatory cap-and-trade program for CO2 emissions in U.S. history. And some utilities have voluntarily pledged to cut their CO2 emissions.

Advances in technology will make it all possible. Invariably, coal will remain the primary fuel source for electric generation. So, the goal is to propel forward those tools that would curb the harmful emissions associated with coal as well as those thought to be tied to global warming. Clearly, it's now possible to dramatically cut such pollutants as nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide. But, it's also becoming increasingly real to trap CO2 in trees or to bury it underground.

Older coal-fired facilities could be retrofitted so as to trap the CO2 before it leaves the smokestack. But such remedies are expensive and less efficient than building modern coal plants called integrated gasification combined cycle generators, commonly referred to as coal gasification. Such plants scrub the mercury, nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide before they would separate the remaining byproducts: CO2, carbon monoxide and hydrogen. While the hydrogen could later be used for such things as fuel cell-powered cars or even power plants, the high-pressure CO2 is gathered and stored in aquifers, old gas fields or under the ocean.

Along those lines, FutureGen is a $1 billion power plant in the works. The cost would be paid mostly by the U.S. federal government, about $700 million. It would be a zero emissions facility that would capture and bury CO2. To boot: the facility would be at least 60 percent efficient, or the amount of coal put into the furnace that is ultimately converted to electricity -- a good bit more than a typical plant that is 35 percent efficient. The goal is then to get the plant up and running by 2012.

"Today, with the exception of nuclear, most non-emitting power generation options are more expensive than conventional power plants," says Steve Gehl, a technical executive with Palo Alto-based EPRI in the research firm's latest journal. "With further technology development, however, carbon-free generation will become increasingly competitive." Until the point in time in which those technologies become widespread, he suggests utilities maintain a broad mix of generation sources that can later be acclimated when new knowledge about climate change emerges.

Disagreement does exist over whether global warming is primarily caused by humans or whether it is naturally occurring. But that discussion doesn't obviate the need to advance the technologies that curb all emissions, including CO2. The issue is now etched in the public's mind and the resulting awareness has caused many companies and nations to address the matter.

More information on this topic is available from Energy Central:

Research Now More Than Ever, EnergyBiz, July/August 2006

For far more extensive news on the energy/power visit:  http://www.energycentral.com .

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