IEA sees full restart from Prudhoe Bay after March, 2007

London (Platts)--11Aug2006

The International Energy Agency said Friday it expects full production
from the 400,000 b/d capacity Prudhoe Bay field on the Alaskan North Slope to
resume from next March following repairs to corroded pipelines.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA said it sees
production recovering to 200,000 b/d by November if production in the western
half of Prudhoe Bay can be restarted. Total production would then likely
recover to about 300,000 b/d next March, compared to a previous estimate of
355,000 b/d for that month.
This scenario is based on resumed western production from October, but
assumes that complete replacement of the eastern pipe is not finished until
late January.
The IEA said pipeline maintenance in July on the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline
System had cut Prudhoe Bay production to around 315,000 b/d for the month, and
to levels around 200,000 b/d in late July.
"The net loss to the market compared to late July production is therefore
less than the commonly cited 400 kb/d capacity level," the IEA said.
BP Sunday began closing Prudhoe Bay after corrosion was found in feeder
pipelines. BP officials have said it will take several days to shut down the
field. Prudhoe Bay accounts for just under 50% of Alaska's average oil
production and 8% of total US production.

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