Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Aug 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm conditions.

Activity was due to a solar sector boundary crossing followed by a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes on 08 August. On 09 and 10 August, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Aug 070

Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 07 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 025/030

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 012/015-008/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/20/20

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/25/20

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/01/01