Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Aug 10 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13E63) produced a C4 flare at 10/1808 UTC. This region is a particularly hot and complex region for this point in the solar cycle. It continues to be in a growth phase and has caused an increase in x-ray background levels.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a possibility of M-class activity from Region 904.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug

Class M 30/35/40

Class X 05/05/10

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 10 Aug 080

Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 080/085/085

90 Day Mean 10 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 009/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 005/005-005/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01