Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Aug 13 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few B-class flares from Region 904 (S13E38). This region continues to be the only spotted group on the disk. The large leader spot showed simplification and consolidation of the umbra regions; the large trailer spot showed slow emergence of new magnetic flux.

The region is predominantly bipolar but has some small areas of mixed polarity, making the group a beta-gamma magnetic class.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with just a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 904.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the next three days (14-16 August).

III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 13 Aug 086

Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 13 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 004/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01