Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Aug 29 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. During the past 24 hours region 905 (S08W35) has produced two C-class flares, a C1.4 and a C2.1. This region has shown signs of decay and is now a magnetic class Beta sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (30 August - 1 September). Due to the currently geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream there may be isolated periods where the geomagnetic field is unsettled for day one of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 29 Aug 073

Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 29 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 009/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 010/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/010-002/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/30/30

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/01