Slim rise in
energy costs lifts hopes on U.S. inflation
Aug 17, 2006 - International Herald Tribune
Author(s): Jeremy W. Peters
Higher energy prices helped push overall consumer prices up
moderately last month, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's view that
inflation in the United States is likely to ease in the coming months.
When the volatile prices of energy and food are set aside, inflation
actually slowed in July, giving investors hope that the U.S. central
bank might be through raising interest rates for a while. Stocks moved
higher on the news.
The consumer price index, which measures what everyday Americans pay
for goods and services, rose 0.4 percent in July. The core index,
excluding food and energy, rose 0.2 percent in July, a slower rate than
in the previous four months.
Over all, the report was not as encouraging for investors as the
figures Tuesday on the producer price index, which fell in July when
food and energy were omitted. Still, the news was well received on Wall
Street, where investors added in early trading Wednesday to the healthy
gains Tuesday in stock and bond prices. The Standard & Poor's 500 index,
the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq composite all rose.
When the Federal Reserve held its benchmark overnight lending rate
steady at 5.25 percent last week the first time in two years that the
Fed's policy committee had met without raising the rate it cautioned
that inflation would remain a problem, but would eventually be contained
by a slowing economy.
Despite the slower growth in the core rate, the report Wednesday
showed that inflation was higher than the Fed wanted it to be. For the
first seven months of the year, consumer prices grew at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 4.8 percent; that compares with a rate of 3.4
percent for all of 2005.
Economists said the softer inflation data in the report Wednesday was
a positive development, but they cautioned against basing any
conclusions on data for just one month.
"Let's wait and see," said Lynn Reaser, chief United States economist
for Bank of America. "Today's report may not in fact represent a total
victory for the Fed, but it certainly must be a welcome piece of news
for them, and gives them some respite."
Energy prices provide much of the upward pressure. Through July, the
Labor Department's index for energy prices rose at an adjusted annual
rate of 25.3 percent; the rate for 2005 was 17.1 percent. "Along with
yesterday's surprisingly tame PPI report, today's CPI report is being
interpreted as evidence that inflation pressures are abating," said
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist with PNC Financial.
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