US Weather Commentary

Location: New York
Author: Michael Schlacter
Date: Thursday, August 17, 2006
 

Aircraft Recon en route to investigate Disturbance north of Bahamas (IM & Cell Phone participants will be notified of any official NHC declarations before they are Publicly announced).

The Tropical Disturbance that we've been eyeing since Sunday, continues to undulate in both organization and convective flare-ups, north of the Bahamian waters. The maturation process of such Waves and Disturbances has been quite lethargic over the past 2-3 weeks, but nonetheless they can still equally flare up or fizzle down in mere hours (particularly when associated with a surface trough or front).

The 'disturbed area' has become so broad and elongated that it has become a binary system of surface Lows, and hence our statement yesterday that "any area within Bahamas or Eastern Gulf is favorable for development over the next day or so". Tropical systems that could 'surprisingly' meander into the Gulf, or are already in the Gulf, deserve extra vigilance for obvious reasons.

Our research indicates that a Hemispheric and Tropospheric transition is under way that could ignite more significant Atlantic Basin Tropical activity during the final 2 weeks of August.

The 4th or "D" Tropical Storm of the Season, climatologically forms on August 22nd.

Major Gulf-Impacting Hurricanes such as Andrew, Lili, Ivan, Katrina and Rita, all did so well after today's date of August 16th.

FYI: During the 2004 and 2005 Seasons, NHC declared the first classification of a tropical system in either their 5 PM or 11 PM advisory periods an imbalanced 65% of the time, and outside of the work day (i.e. weeknights, weekends) an imbalanced 79% of the time.

Related link of interest (Historical Hurricanes Impacting New York):

http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Hurricanes.html