Iran referral to UN would push oil prices up dramatically: Qatar

Vienna (Platts)--31Jan2006

Oil prices will rise "dramatically" if Iran is referred to the UN
Security Council over its controversial nuclear program, Qatari oil minister
Abdullah al-Attiyah said Tuesday ahead of formal OPEC talks in Vienna.
     "Prices will go up dramatically," he said, adding that if Iranian
production "disappears" from the market, OPEC would not be able to cover any
shortfall. "If Iran's production disappears, for sure it will have a big
effect," Attiyah said. "No, OPEC will not make up for it. It's a huge
production and I hope not to see it happen. I am optimistic that we are not
going to see Iranian crude disappear from the market."
     In fact, Iranian oil minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh has now made clear
that Iran does not intend to use oil as a bargaining tool in its dispute with
the international community over its resumption of sensitive nuclear
activities.
     Also speaking just ahead of OPEC's Vienna talks, the Iranian minister
said there was "no linkage" between the nuclear issue and Iranian oil exports.
"We have no reason to stop our exports," he said. He declined to comment on
how oil prices might react if the Iranian dossier was referred to the Security
Council. "It is best not to predict based on hypotheticals," he said.
     Earlier Tuesday, the five permanent UN Security Council members agreed
after talks in London to refer Iran to the Security Council but, in a
compromise with Russia, to postpone any UN action until March at the earliest,
AFP reported.
     The latest developments in the Iranian nuclear saga are not expected to
affect the oil cartel's plans, set to be formalized later Tuesday, to maintain
current output levels for the time being and review them in early March,
although several ministers have predicted that prices will increase sharply if
Iran is referred to the UN.

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