OPEC oil export revenue to grow 10% in 2006: US EIA

Washington (Platts)--11Jan2006

If crude oil prices remain near current levels for the year, as expected,
OPEC net export revenues for 2006 should increase by 10% from 2005 levels,
to $522-bil, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.

     Next year, slightly lower crude prices should take a toll on OPEC net oil
export revenues, which are expected to slip 5% to $495-bil, EIA added.

     The agency, in its twice-yearly estimate of OPEC revenues, said the 11
members of the cartel made an estimated $473-bil in 2005 on oil exports, a 43%
increase from the $330-bil made in 2004 and a 10% increase from revenue
forecasts EIA made back in June 2005 -- again largely due to higher prices.

     The stronger prices from 2003 to present have been the result of rapid
world oil demand growth and historically low levels of spare oil production
capacity, said EIA, the statistical arm of the US Energy Department. "As of
January 2006, many of the trends seen in 2003-2005 appear to be continuing: 1)
instability and attacks on oil infrastructure in Iraq; 2) continued strong
Asian demand growth; 3) high OPEC capacity utilization rates; and 4) worries
about political instability in the Middle East and elsewhere," EIA noted.

     Although OPEC oil export revenues have been increasing rapidly in the
strong price environment, they remain, in inflation-adjusted, per capita
terms, far below peaks reached in the late 1970s and early 1980s, EIA said.
For OPEC as a whole, EIA estimates per capita oil export revenues at $844 in
2005, about 46% of the $1,821 (real constant $2005) per capita oil export
revenues achieved in 1980. "This continues to have significant implications
for OPEC oil price preferences and policies," EIA said.

     Iraq earned an estimated $23.4-bil in oil export revenue in 2005, EIA
said, more than double the $9.8-bil earned in 2003. The agency expects Iraq's
oil export earnings will increase only slightly in 2006, to around $25-bil,
and then fall in 2007 to around $23.7-bil on slightly lower oil prices.

     Iraqi oil export revenue projections are complicated by high levels of
uncertainly regarding Iraqi oil exports, ongoing instability and violence that
discourages contractors from making needed repairs and continued attacks on
oil infrastructure, EIA. "It is important to note that Iraq's net revenues are
actually overstated here, since EIA does not specifically take into account
the amount of money -- over $2-bil per year -- spent on refined oil products
the country is forced to import," the agency explained.

     Saudi oil export revenues soared 49% in 2005 compared with 2004 and are
projected to increase again, by about 6%, in 2006 before falling about 7% in
2007, EIA said. Saudi Arabia, which maintains the highest share of OPEC oil
export revenues, at 32% of the OPEC total in 2005, should see its share
decline slightly in 2006 to about 31%. This will largely be due to Nigeria,
which will see its OPEC share increase from 9.5% in 2005 to 10.1% in 2006, EIA
said. 

		--Cathy Landry, cathy_landry@platts.com

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