Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 01 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An 8 nT sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 01/1406 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 01 Jan 087

Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 01 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 006/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 008/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/15/15

Minor storm 15/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01