Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 02 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 838 (N16, L=324) produced a long duration C1 flare on the Northwest limb at 01/2216 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

Class M 05/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 02 Jan 085

Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 085/085/090

90 Day Mean 02 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 003/003-003/003-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/10/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01