Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 03 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The three spotted regions were stable or declining. Little of significance occurred.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 03 Jan 085

Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 085/090/090

90 Day Mean 03 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/003-005/003-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05