Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 04 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity continued very low. Both spot groups on the visible disk, Region 841 (N13W76) and Region 843 (N13W51), were stable and quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled. The slight increase later in the period is due to the possible effects of a high speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 04 Jan 084

Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 04 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/002

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/003-005/005-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01