Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 05 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 843 (N12W64) produced an impulsive C4/Sf flare at 0923 UTC. There was a Type II sweep (estimated shock speed approx. 1100 km/s) associated with the flare.

This event followed soon after a long duration B8 x-ray flare from nearby Region 841 (N13W91) which attained maximum at 0742 UTC. The activity was preceded by plage brightenings in both regions.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 843 could produce an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A high speed solar wind stream may boost activity slightly during the last two days of the period.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 05 Jan 083

Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 05 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 001/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/20/20

Minor storm 05/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01