Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 11 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low, with no flares observed during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (12-14 Jan).

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 11 Jan 077

Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 078/078/078

90 Day Mean 11 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/002

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01