Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 15 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Two new regions were numbered today; Region 847 (S09W08) which produced a C1 flare at 15/1445Z and Region 846 (N05W30) which has developed from a plage region into a Dso Beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on

16 January due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 17 - 18 January.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 15 Jan 081

Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 15 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/015-005/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/20/20

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/25/20

Minor storm 20/15/10

Major-severe storm 10/05/01