Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 16 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 847 (S08W21) produced several low-level B-class flares. Region 846 (N06W44) has remained quiescent.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Active conditions followed the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 Jan 084

Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 085/085/090

90 Day Mean 16 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/20/20

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/01/01