Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 17 2237 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No significant development was observed from the active regions on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 846

(N04W56) or 847 (S08W35).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 17 Jan 083

Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 085/090/090

90 Day Mean 17 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/30/30

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/35/35

Minor storm 20/20/20

Major-severe storm 01/01/01