Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 18 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 848 (S18E37) emerged quickly over the past 24 hours into a D-type group with minor magnetic mixing. No significant changes were noted in the remaining two sunspot regions.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from new Region 848.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor storm period between 18/0900 - 1200Z. A short period of southward IMF Bz accounted for the storm conditions. Solar speed was slightly enhanced, ranging between 500 - 550 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 18 Jan 086

Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 090/090/090

90 Day Mean 18 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 010/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 010/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/20/15

Minor storm 05/05/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/25/20

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01