Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 19 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A large filament eruption and associated CME was observed off the SE limb today at about 19/1300Z. The CME does not appear to be Earth directed. Region 848

(S19E24) continues in a slow growth phase, and was responsible for some low B-class activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 848.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 19 Jan 089

Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 090/090/090

90 Day Mean 19 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01