Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 22 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 848

(S19W15) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period, the largest event was a C4 x-ray flare occurring at 22/1410Z. A weak delta spot is evident near the central cluster of intermediate spots. Region 849 (S07E44) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 848 has the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 23 and 24 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

Class M 30/30/30

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 22 Jan 093

Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 095/095/090

90 Day Mean 22 Jan 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 010/012-012/015-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/30/20

Minor storm 10/15/05

Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/35/25

Minor storm 10/15/10

Major-severe storm 05/10/05