Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 23 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region

848 (S19W28) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period. The magnetic delta spot seen yesterday has decayed and the sunspot group is now classified a beta-gamma. Region 850 (N06W05) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 848 remains capable of producing an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated period of minor storming occurred at the Boulder magnetometer between 23/0900 and 1200Z. The elevated conditions are due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The solar wind speeds increased from near 400 km/sec to over 600 km/sec, between 23/0600 and 1200Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 24 and 25 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 25 January as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan

Class M 15/15/15

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 23 Jan 092

Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 090/090/090

90 Day Mean 23 Jan 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 004/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 012/015-008/012-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/20/15

Minor storm 10/05/01

Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/30/20

Minor storm 15/10/05

Major-severe storm 10/05/01