Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 24 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 848 (S19W41) produced multiple B and C-class flares today, the largest was a C3 x-ray flare occurring at 24/2217Z. This regions sunspot area increased during the period and magnetic analysis continues to show weak gamma characteristics. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 848 remains capable of producing C-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned high speed coronal hole stream, which has been waning over the later part of the period.

Wind speed was nearing 400 km/sec at the time of this writing.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan

Class M 20/20/20

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 24 Jan 093

Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 095/095/095

90 Day Mean 24 Jan 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 013/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 05/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01