Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 26 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 848 (S20W66).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. An isolated major storm period was observed between 26/1500 UTC and 26/1800 UTC.

The heightened activity was due to the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with Isolated active periods possible on 27 January. On 28 and 29 January, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan

Class M 05/05/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 26 Jan 087

Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 085/085/080

90 Day Mean 26 Jan 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 008/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/023

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/15/15

Minor storm 15/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01