Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 29 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 29 Jan 080

Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 29 Jan 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 003/005-003/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/20

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 05/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05