Peak refers to the point at which half of the known reserves of cheap
crude oil are used up. Once that point is reached, prices will begin to
rise dramatically and continue to do so as society moves down the backside
of the oil production bell curve.
Meanwhile, a whole new energy regime is being readied. Hydrogen -- the
lightest and most abundant element in the universe -- is the next great
energy revolution. Scientists call it the "forever fuel" because it never
runs out. And when hydrogen is used to produce power, the only byproducts
are pure water and heat.
Hydrogen has the potential to end the world's reliance on oil. It will
dramatically cut down on carbon dioxide emissions and mitigate the effects
of global warming. And because hydrogen is so plentiful, people who have
never before had access to electricity will be able to generate it.
Hydrogen is found everywhere on earth, yet it rarely exists free floating
in nature. Instead, it has to be extracted from either hydrocarbons or
water. Today, the most cost-effective way to produce commercial hydrogen
is to harvest it from natural gas via a steam reforming process. Yet the
supply of natural gas is as finite as our oil supply, and therefore not a
dependable source. Hydrogen could also be extracted from coal, but that
would mean an increase in the emission of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere. Nuclear power could also be used to extract hydrogen, but
would generate increasing amounts of radioactive wastes and be vulnerable
to terrorist attacks.
There is another way to produce hydrogen -- one that uses no fossil fuels
in the process. Renewable sources of energy -- photovoltaic cells, wind,
hydro and geothermal -- are increasingly being used to produce
electricity. That electricity, in turn, can be used in a process called
electrolysis, to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen can also
be extracted from energy crops and agricultural waste, so called biomass.
Once produced, the hydrogen can be stored and used, when needed, to
generate electricity.
The important point to emphasize is that a renewable energy society is
impossible unless the energy can be stored in the form of hydrogen. That's
because renewable energy is intermittent. The sun isn't always shining,
the wind isn't always blowing, and water isn't always flowing when there's
a drought. When renewable energy isn't available, electricity can't be
generated and economic activity grinds to a halt. But, if some of the
electricity being generated, when renewable energy is abundant, can be
used to extract hydrogen from water, which can then be stored for later
use, society will have a continuous supply of power.
Stationary commercial fuel cells powered by hydrogen are just now being
introduced for home, office, and industrial use. Portable fuel cell
cartridges will be on the market in a few years. Consumers will be able to
power up their cell phones, laptops computers, and other appliances for 20
days or more with a single cartridge. The major automakers already have
spent over $2 billion developing hydrogen cars, buses, and trucks, and the
first mass-produced vehicles are expected to be on the road beginning in
2010.
While the costs of harnessing renewable energy and extracting hydrogen are
still high, new technological breakthroughs and economies of scale are
dramatically reducing these costs every year. Moreover, hydrogen powered
fuel cells are 2 times more efficient than the internal combustion engine.
Meanwhile, the direct and indirect costs of oil and gas on world markets
are going to continue to rise. As we approach the nexus between the
falling price of renewables and hydrogen and the rising price of fossil
fuels, the old energy regime will steadily give rise to the new energy
era.
The hydrogen economy will make possible a vast redistribution of power,
with far-reaching consequences for society. Today's centralized, top-down
flow of energy, controlled by global oil companies and utilities, could
become obsolete. In the new era, every human being with access to
renewable energy sources could become a producer as well as a consumer of
his or her own energy, using so-called "distributed generation." Millions
of end-users will be able to connect their fuel cells into local,
regional, and national hydrogen energy webs, using the same design
principles and smart technologies that made possible the World Wide Web.
They can then begin to share energy -- peer-to-peer -- creating a new
decentralized form of energy generation and use.
In the new hydrogen fuel-cell era, the automobile itself will becomes a
"power station on wheels." The average house requires approximately two to
four kilowatts of power for heat and electricity. But each fuel-cell
driven car will have a generating capacity of 20 kilowatts. Since cars are
parked most of the time, owners can plug them into the home, office or the
main interactive electricity network, during nonuse hours, selling the
electricity they produce back to the grid. If just 25 percent of drivers
used their vehicles as mini-power plants, we could eliminate all the
giant, environmentally polluting power plants we now depend on.
The harnessing of hydrogen will alter our way of life as fundamentally as
the introduction of coal and steam power in the 19th century and the shift
to oil and the internal combustion engine in the 20th century. Making the
transition to a hydrogen economy represents the single most important
challenge and greatest opportunity of the 21st century.
About the author --
Jeremy Rifkin is the author of "The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the
World Wide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth" and
president of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington, DC.
