Global oil at sea set to fall from winter peak: Oil Movements

Singapore (Platts)--3Mar2006

Global oil stocks at sea, or crude in transit from producers to
consumers, will likely be falling from their late winter peak when OPEC
ministers next meet in Vienna March 8 according to Roy Mason, who tracks
global crude tanker activity for Oil Movements, a UK-based consultancy.
     A four-week rolling average of global oil-at-sea will likely have fallen
to about 495 million barrels as of March 18, down from about 498 million
barrels on March 11.
     "Sailings will be heading south when OPEC meets, and only in part because
of the politics of the Niger Delta," Mason said in the latest issue of his
weekly newsletter released Thursday.
     Global oil stocks at sea typically peak around November or December to
meet demand for winter heating. That pattern was thrown off by the devastating
US hurricane season in 2005, pushing the 2005 winter peak out to some time in
late February, 2006.
     That "bubble" in westbound oil from the Middle East resulting from
hurricane-induced distortions to global oil flows has already begun to
deflate, taking global stocks of oil-at-sea with it.
     "Declining westbound shipments from late February will be showing up in
arrivals in the later part of this month. The outcome for stocks will be set
by a downhill race between imports and runs," Mason said.
--Mike Kobal, michael_kobal@platts.com

For more oil news, request a free trial to Platts Oilgram News at
http://www.platts.com/Request%20More%20Information/

Please visit: www.platts.com

Their coverage of energy matters is extensive!!.