The US Pentagon is drawing up contingency plans to attack Iranian nuclear
sites but a military strike is likely to prompt Tehran into a backlash in the
Gulf targeted at US forces in Iraq and assets in Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain,
PFC Energy said in a report.
Iran's nuclear case was last week referred to the UN Security Council by
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which failed in efforts to
convince Tehran to halt its nuclear enrichment program. Iran insists it is
developing nuclear power for peaceful purposes but the US suspects that Tehran
is seeking technology to develop nuclear weapons.
PFC Energy said in a March 9 report that the world body is expected to
adopt an "escalatory approach," giving Iran a chance to yield at each stage,
rather than impose sanctions outright and risk opposition from Russia and
China.
But if Tehran remains defiant and refuses to heed calls to halt uranium
enrichment and cooperate unconditionally with the IAEA, the US, backed by
Britain and France, will seek economic sanctions.
With the option of direct US-Iranian negotiations the most unlikely at
present, the five permanent members would find themselves severely hamstrung
in formulating a workable alternative that would avoid an escalation of the
present crisis, PFC said. Furthermore their difficulties are exacerbated by
Washington's unambiguous support for regime change in Tehran, something that
understandably adds to Iran's sense of insecurity, it added.
The report said contingency plans were being draw up by the Pentagon for
a large scale air campaign targeting key nuclear installations, and US
hawks, notably Washington's permanent representative to the UN, John Bolton,
have hinted that the use of force remains a possibility.
British foreign secretary Jack Stra said Monday that military action was
inconceivable and the issue should be resolved by diplomatic means.
But PFC said that were the White House to opt for a military solution, it
would do so without backing from its international allies. Moreover, it would
risk an Iranian backlash in the Gulf targeted almost certainly against US
forces in Iraq, as well as assets in Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab
Emirates. Military action would also probably accelerate any Iranian nuclear
weapon program in the longer term.
If the Security Council cannot agree tough measures, the administration
of President George W. Bush will find it politically impossible to do
nothing, with pressure from Congress growing for some kind of punitive action
against Iran though this does not include support for military action.
Claims by the US envoy to the IAEA that Iran has enough weapon-grade
uranium to produce a build 10 small bombs are incorrect and most analysts
agree that Iran will not be able to produce a nuclear weapon within five years
at the earliest, PFC said. But the next 6-12 months are crucial if
"weaponization" is Iran's goal, it said.
During that time, it could acquire the necessary high-level enrichment
technology needed to eventually go nuclear, said PFC, adding that this
explains the urgency for the US and European governments to find a solution.
Washington is also aware that the Israeli government has made it clear that if
the international community does not act before Iran acquires this expertise,
it would act unilaterally, a move the US wants to avoid.
While all this does not make military action inevitable, there are
certain factors that would influence a decision.
Once US congressional mid-term elections are out of the way and an
expected drawdown of forces from Iraq begins later this year, the White House
may perceive fewer domestic constraints to the use of force in the event all
other options have failed. The Bush administration is certainly likely to find
military force more palatable than relying on Tehran's word that its program
is designed for civilian purposes, PFC said.
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