Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

2006 Mar 08 0001 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 856 (S08W38) produced a long-duration B2 flare at 07/1614Z. A six degree disappearing filament, centered at N02E24, was reported between 06/1000Z and 06/2255Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions occurred from 07/0000Z to 07/0600Z as a result of a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. On 09-10 March, predominantly unsettled conditions are expected, with possible isolated active periods. This increased activity is due to a high speed coronal hole stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Mar 074

Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 07 Mar 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 008/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 012/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 008/010-010/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/25

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/35/35

Minor storm 15/20/20

Major-severe storm 05/10/10