Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Mar 08 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Valid From: 2006 Mar 09 0300 UTC Valid To: 2006 Mar 09 0400 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2006 Mar 09 0230 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated periods of active conditions are possible due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 08 Mar 072

Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 072/072/072

90 Day Mean 08 Mar 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 006/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 012/015-012/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 15/15/10

Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/35/25

Minor storm 20/20/15

Major-severe storm 10/10/05