Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Mar 09 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 10-11 March. Isolated active periods are possible during this time, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on 12 March.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 09 Mar 073

Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 072/072/072

90 Day Mean 09 Mar 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 004/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 010/015-010/012-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/10

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/25/10

Minor storm 20/15/05

Major-severe storm 10/05/01