Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Mar 16 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are just a couple of small, insignificant sunspot groups on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity continues at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 March. A high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective on 19 March, and produce isolated active to minor storm conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 Mar 072

Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 16 Mar 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/008-005/008-010/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/30

Minor storm 01/01/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/20/40

Minor storm 01/05/25

Major-severe storm 01/01/10