Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Mar 22 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 862 (S06W51) produced an isolated C2.1 flare at 21/2326 UTC along with numerous B-class flares. This region retains its beta gamma magnetic configuration, while there appears to be a decline in areal coverage. New Region 863 (N08W52) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period occurred between 22/0300 and 22/0600 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 March. On 24 and 25 March, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with the possibility of isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 22 Mar 076

Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 22 Mar 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/008-008/012-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/20

Minor storm 05/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/25

Minor storm 10/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/05