Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Mar 30 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of several B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 865

(S13E32) including the largest, a B9/Sf at 1517Z. Region 865 is showing slow growth and is currently a 140 millionths D-type sunspot group. Region 866 (S08E56) managed to produce a B7 flare at 1709 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 865 sometime during the next three days (31 Mar - 2 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (31 Mar - 1 Apr) and is expected to be generally unsettled by the third day (2 Apr).

III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 30 Mar 084

Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 30 Mar 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 004/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 005/005-005/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/20

Minor storm 10/10/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 10/10/20

Major-severe storm 05/05/05