10-03-06
Even the quintessential gas-guzzling SUV could become energy-efficient if it
weighed a lot less and was run by a hybrid engine or a fuel cell, according to
noted author and environmentalist Amory Lovins, who spoke on Feb. 27 to a packed
crowd in MIT's Wong Auditorium.
Lovins is the founder and CEO of the Rocky Mountain Institute, a non-profit
organization that "fosters the efficient and restorative use of resources to
make the world secure, just, prosperous and life-sustaining."
By increasing efficiency and substituting fuels such as biodiesel and natural
gas saved through increased efficiency, the United States can be oil-free by
2040, said Lovins, featured speaker at the third colloquium sponsored by the
Energy Research Council (ERC) and the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment
(LFEE).
In a talk that shared the title "Winning the Oil Endgame" with his 29th book,
Lovins presented a picture of an energy future in which more American cars will
be manufactured that are competitive in the world marketplace, emissions will be
drastically reduced, the economy will improve and the United States will be
freed from its dependence on Middle East oil -- all with no radical shifts in
government policy, taxes or regulations.
The catch? Cars, trucks and planes, which consume 70 % of the US oil supply,
will virtually all have to be made of lightweight carbon composites or new
ultralight steel. This is not such a big hurdle, Lovins said, noting that
aerodynamic, low-drag, crashworthy hybrid cars can be manufactured by retooled
and retrained automakers.
While Lovins acknowledged that the automobile industry is "risk-averse," he
said, "Car companies are starting to recognize that their only salvation is in
radical innovation. I've heard things in Detroit lately you would not have heard
six months ago. You can make cars big, protective and comfortable without also
making them heavy."
In fact, oil is already going away as a fuel source, Lovins argued. Just as
the whaling industry ran out of customers before it ran out of whales, oil
should become less profitable as new technologies make it less necessary and
desirable, he said.
"We have choices to make," Lovins said. "Our security and competitiveness are at
risk from oil insecurity, geopolitical rivalry, price volatility, perhaps
depletion and climatic stability."
Other countries are already working toward the same goals.
"China plans to produce cars that don't use much oil, then no oil, and plans to
be the world leader in fuel cells," he said. "Europe in 2003 made 17 times as
much biodiesel as the US."
Even after a $ 180 bn investment in the transportation industry to facilitate
the conversion to ultralight vehicles -- and an additional investment in the
biofuels industry to establish cellulosic ethanol as a viable alternative fuel
-- the million-plus new jobs created, the jobs saved and the substantial
reduction in carbon dioxide emissions make this a win-win proposition.
"This is an endgame we should all be playing together to win, whatever your
political persuasion," Lovins said.
Source: http://web.mit.edu