An amazing naiveté
is being displayed by many parts of the electric enterprise who
assume that in an open, deregulated market that prices can only
move in a downward direction. About a month ago, the Wall Street
Journal had a page one story (States Seek Ways to Curb Surging
Electricity Bills) which reported the shock and dismay of
state regulatory officials that prices were rising for consumers,
especially due to the increase in natural gas rates. This
unrealistic expectation is exacerbated by the failure to incent
infrastructure investments as well placing an entire critical
industry at risk of financial disaster.
It is important to keep in mind that the industry did not seek
deregulation but, once the road became clear, moved down the path
in creative and often effective ways. Freezing rates, forcing
reductions in infrastructure investments, demanding asset
divestitures came not at the behest of utility executives. In
fact, many would argue it was not deregulation that kept prices
low for consumers but re-regulation and demands for stable rates
as a temporary measure to appease the public while, correctly so,
compensating investors for building the necessary power plants and
related infrastructure.
We have further ignored our electricity needs for a growing
consumptive society in many parts of the nation. The uncertainty
in the future has negatively affected the manner in which we
produce power and we have severed the relationships between the
obligation to serve, the need for integrated resource planning and
the requirements of the environment. Having placed all of the
nation’s eggs in the natural gas basket (despite coal’s dominance
and nuclear power’s excellent record) we sit and wonder why we are
living with higher prices.
For those regions of the country where deregulation has taken
hold, it is critical to recognize that prices move in both
directions and be allowed to do so if the suggested advantages of
open markets are to be realized. Reacting by placing blame may be
politically expedient and allow for plausible deniability but does
not allow market signals to be truly expressed.
The country has just seen the beginning of higher electricity
prices for another key reason: uncertainty in the marketplace has
caused a significant lack of infrastructure investment. While the
dollars being invested have been thankfully increasing, it is
still behind what is necessary to build the infrastructure for the
future. The lack of investment is clearly justifiable from the
perspective of the utilities and their investors—but society is
already paying the price daily for power unreliability by some
estimates as high as $100 billion a year.
Lest we think this is only a challenge for the investor owned
utility, public power is facing the same issues as it has also
fallen prey to the reliance on a single source for its generation
needs and tries to traverse the same aging infrastructure.
The solution comes to the five points developed in the
Electricity Sector Framework for the Future, developed by the
not-for-profit Electric Power Research Institute two years ago and
not by trying to squeeze electric utilities once again. That
report, a collaborative effort of more than 250 organizations
pointed to Stabilizing Markets, Providing for the Public Good,
Empowering Consumers, Unleashing Innovation and Protecting the
Environment as the keys to the 21st Century. Those recommendations
are as powerful today as they were when released just after the
August 13 Northeast/Midwest Blackout.
What are the five main conclusions reached in the Framework?
- Stabilizing Markets: Competitive markets thrive when
there is an active, open platform for participants to engage in
trading, including caps, collars and futures backed by real
assets. The industry has cycled between the wild and wooly days
of pre-Enron trading and huge market expectations to a lack of
liquidity and fluidity. Once a true marketplace is established
strength can return to the business.
- Providing for the Public Good: There is a fine
balance between a truly open market and a fully regulated
marketplace. Lost in much of the discussion has been the
industry’s 100 year history of providing service on an equal
basis. The electricity enterprise has a proud history of
customer service and managing for contingencies for all classes
of customers. There has been a disconnect between the needs of
the public and the desire to create open markets.
- Empowering Customers: This is not a call for open
markets, but rather for allowing the customer to be engaged in
the process of buying electricity (or gas for that matter).
Providing an after-the-fact report card (the monthly bill) does
little to influence behavior and, in fact, may create
frustration and disinterest. The customer needs information and
the ability to do something about their consumption in order to
be truly engaged and to become a force in the active management
of their use.
- Unleashing Technology: Decades of under investment in
technology and the lack of a bridging strategy to the future,
coupled with the needs of increased power quality and
reliability open the door to the most powerful transition of
all. Some signs of advanced technology are appearing as firms
move to the Intelligrid and relate smart technologies. More
needs to be done to promote advancement. Ultimately it is
advanced technology and control that can lower costs.
- Protect the Environment: Environmental protection and
the future of the energy business are inextricably linked. A
balanced approach including fuel diversity, demand response and
energy efficiency is needed to make the system work. Focusing
solely on a single fuel or single aspect will not allow for a
robust system.
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