How China can
use energy economically
May 11, 2006 - China Daily
Author(s): Robert Blohm
The national energy leading group chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao
recently declared that "marketization is the most important element of
energy policy."
In support, China Daily itself sent May Day holiday-makers off with a
staff editorial saying market-oriented measures are more effective than
administrative measures to carry out the government's commitment to
reducing pollution and raising energy efficiency.
These calls follow the recent proposal by the Ministry of Finance,
the Ministry of Commerce and the State Council for a new energy
consumption law to be approved by the National People's Congress next
year, as well as the sixth gasoline price increase this year by the
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
The energy leading group calls for "perfecting energy laws and
regulations" to "use energy economically." This highlights the purpose
of the consumption law and the price increase, which is to make China
use energy more efficiently to become a stronger and more secure global
competitor, perhaps even using resources better than the United States
has. What is most essential to a country's strategic future is not only
economic growth, but how efficiently the economic growth is achieved; in
other words, how much more can be produced for less.
Only efficient growth is sustainable. The national security of China
is also improved when the nation can depend less on imported commodity
to achieve the same or more economic output.
China's leadership has observed from the rest of the world that
market pricing provides a far more detailed and timely, and therefore
more efficient, resource allocation than administratively set
artificially low prices or subsidies.
Indeed, investors use oil company profits to increase supply and
eventually lower oil prices, but ultimately to directly finance the
human-capital intensive "innovative economy" targeted by the 11th
Five-Year Plan (2006-10). It is not just to reinvest in traditional oil
production.
The most striking physical manifestation of China's revolutionary
economic growth is its energy consumption. China accounts for 10 per
cent of the world's energy consumption and half of East Asia's, but for
much less of the gross domestic product (GDP). China is now the world's
No 2 oil consumer. China's oil consumption has quadrupled in the last 15
years. That's a growth rate 30 per cent faster than GDP growth.
China's electricity consumption is approaching two-thirds of the
United States', according to the electricity forecast released in March
by the NDRC. This makes China the world's second-largest electric power
producer.
To sustain this, China's oil companies are now placed under huge
bargaining pressure to procure liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an
alternative, cleaner fuel for electricity production. Also, huge
planning and costly stabilization requirements are placed on State Grid
Corporation and China Southern Power Grid Corporation to accommodate a
proliferation of remote power plants near coal and water resources to
the north and west respectively.
While these super-growth energy figures can be a point of pride for
Chinese, the country's leadership has recognized that these numbers have
a dark side that still indicates huge inefficiency and unnecessary
over-consumption of energy relative to GDP and compared to North
America, Europe and Japan, where energy prices have been more market
driven.
This is true especially since crude oil prices started rising above
their 50-year historical average price in 2001.
China's population control policy combined with productivity
improvement did contribute to improved energy efficiency for 20 years
until 2001. But after 2001, China's economy reversed to becoming
increasingly energy inefficient because energy prices to consumers did
not rise to the market level.
In other regions of the world, energy consumption has continued to
grow more slowly than GDP, just as it had since the oil-price shocks of
1973 and 1978 gave the economic incentive to find ways to improve the
productivity of energy use, to marketize the price of natural gas and
electricity, and to develop alternative energy sources.
After the oil price shocks in the 1970s, people adjusted their
consumption and world energy prices eventually collapsed. For example,
homes were insulated, more efficient lighting was used, and smart
hot-water heaters were installed. In addition, more used public
transportation, cars became more fuel-efficient, several co- workers
carpooled to work, and companies became more competitive and invested in
energy-saving technology. Many consumers switched to alternative fuel
partly by installing dual-fuel power and heating systems, and small
efficient gas-fired jet engines were developed to produce electricity.
Eventually national wholesale markets were created where natural gas
and electricity could be sold competitively between suppliers and
customers who pay a publicly posted "transportation" fee to the pipeline
or electric-transmission operator.
Most importantly, that fee varies by region to reflect the cost of
congestion in the delivery system, and to indicate whether and where it
is economically more efficient to expand either delivery or production,
and expand either the natural gas pipeline system or the electric
transmission system.
China bravely started down the road toward energy markets in 2002
when it broke the State Power Corporation into two grid companies, and
five competing power generating companies, and established the State
Electricity Regulatory Commission to oversee the market.
But the "demand side" of a wholesale market has not yet been
developed and price regulation has persisted with no objective means of
determining the most economically efficient expansion of the nation's
electricity and natural gas pipeline systems.
Worse, the artificially low prices (especially since 2001) prompted
over-consumption under the scientific law of prices, causing a shortage
of power plants because producers' cost could not be recovered in the
artificially low prices to consumers. This is the same thing that
happened to oil refiners and prompted shortages of refined oil products.
The NDRC has taken some steps in the right direction to address this
problem.
Besides the gasoline price increases intended to bring regulated
prices closer to where market prices could prevail, the NDRC recently
ended regulated coal prices to the power generation companies, and
forced them to negotiate contracts directly with the coal producers
while allowing them to recover 70 per cent of any subsequent cost
increase in a higher regulated electricity price to consumers. Meanwhile
power plant construction has recently surpassed demand growth
sufficiently to eliminate power shortages by next year.
But the NDRC still has to go much further, and not just in regards to
electricity. In particular it must eventually reflect on current prices
and previously ignored market value increase in coal, electricity and
refined oil products.
The NDRC needs to do so to resolutely transition to wholesale- market
pricing mechanisms driving an energy price to consumers that reflect
market-determined costs.
The NDRC now needs to initiate the hard detailed work of preparing
those mechanisms, avoiding the mistakes made by other countries in
developing such mechanisms, and developing flexible advanced economic
system-planning, market forecasting, and system- operation methods that
properly take market behaviour into account.
This is the scientific basis for efficiently expanding this nation's
electricity, natural gas, coal and oil-refining and distribution systems
into being the world's greatest.
The author is an American and Canadian investment banker, economist
and energy expert.
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