Nuclear's
comeback has unknowns far beyond what to do with waste
May 18, 2006 - Scotsman, The
Author(s): John Bowker Deputy City Editor
SO NOW it's official. Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, says nuclear
power is "back on the agenda with a vengeance" - a comment that can
safely be taken as confirmation of what had become the government's
worst kept secret: new nuclear power stations are on the way.
"The facts", as Blair puts it, are straightforward. As things stand,
only one UK station - Suffolk's Sizewell B - will still be active in 15
years. That means that an energy resource now generating about 22 per
cent of the UK's electricity will dwindle to supply about 4 per cent.
Something has to be done, and that something is simply to replace old
with new.
The strategy bristles with controversy. The Committee on Radioactive
Waste Management (CoRWM) is still in the early stages of identifying
what to do with nuclear waste, a solution likely to involve some kind of
deep land depository.
Clean-up is by far the greatest public concern about new nuclear
power.
There are also concerns on a corporate level. The development will
deliver a massive boost to one, hugely controversial, company: British
Energy.
The Livingston-based operator came within a whisker of collapse just
three years ago. Yet this news delivers the possibility of a life-span
well into the second half of this century.
BE - which owns eight nuclear stations, including Torness in Lothian
and Hunterston B in Ayrshire - had to be bailed out by the government in
2003 in return for 65 per cent of its cash-flow.
It re-listed, ditched its chief executive, Mike Alexander, and sailed
back into the FTSE 100.
Now, far from being forever tarnished by the experience, it has
emerged as the only British company with the skills to run the UK's new
fleet.
It is thought there will be a competitive auction for the potentially
lucrative operator's role. But
BE is more than happy to take on the responsibility - at no added
cost to the taxpayer (not a statement everyone believes, judging by the
number of calls to The Scotsman yesterday).
Instead, the firm would strike up partnerships or consortiums with
private investors, who would effectively bankroll the programme.
However, it is first asking the government to shake up station licensing
regulations, the planning process and the carbon emissions trading
market.
Considering how many man hours and no doubt external consultants this
would require, in reality the taxpayer is coughing up a pile.
But whether it asks for subsidies or not, can BE be trusted with the
responsibility after its recent woes? Its current performance is
certainly good. Operating profits reached GBP 377 million for the first
nine months of the financial year to end-March, while its share price
has doubled over the past year to 667p.
But - and it's a big but - a lot of this has to do with the price of
wholesale electricity. When BE ran into financial distress, prices were
about GBP 15 per megawatt hour. Now, they are up at GBP 55.
Does this matter? It depends on whether the company would simply fall
apart again if the market went into another free-fall, a sensitive issue
when considering nuclear build.
Analysts say it is not impossible. But the group has a lot more
flexibility in coping with a low-price environment. New chief executive
Bill Coley is generally highly regarded, and is continuing his
predecessor's policy of investing in current stations.
The sum of these facts is that a recently ridiculed company is set to
be at the heart of any operators' bidding war.
Another key question surrounding nuclear build concerns the
government's allocation of resources. Its proposed market reforms
require a great deal of attention, and it already has its hands full
trying to accommodate another powerful group - the renewables industry.
Blair included in his Tuesday night speech that the UK needed a "big
push in renewables", but will it be possible to achieve both at the same
time?
Chris Tomlinson, head of operations at the British Wind Energy
Association (BWEA), says: "It should not be a wind versus nuclear
argument, but for the industry to flourish there needs to be additional
financial support. Putting more into nuclear does not come at the
expense of renewables."
The BWEA thinks that 21 per cent of UK electricity can come from
wind, but Maf Smith, chief executive of Scottish Renewables, says north
of the Border that figure could be 50 per cent - if the government does
more to help out.
Again the uncertainty and length of the planning process is a
concern. But in Scotland the biggest worry is infrastructure - currently
too old and weak to transport all the electricity that might be
generated from Scottish wind and marine power.
"Developing our renewables industry without upgrading the
infrastructure is like trying to build an economy without roads and
railways," Smith says. "Without it, we will not make the 50 per cent
targets, and small wind companies trying to access the grid may not be
able to."
The problem is encapsulated in the serious challenges to the new line
proposed by Scottish & Southern Energy between Beauly and Denny. The
inclusion of higher pylons across the Cairngorms National Park has
sparked ferocious and powerful opposition.
It is by no means inevitable that the line will be built. And there
may be similar opposition to new nuclear power stations, regardless of
whether British Energy is awarded the task of running them. New Labour
and the Scottish Executive have their work cut out.
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