| Oil price pushed 
        higher by new investors 
 May 2, 2006 - International Herald Tribune
 Author(s): Jad Mouwad And Heather Timmons
 
 A global economic boom, sharply higher demand, extraordinarily tight 
        supplies and domestic instability in many of the world's top 
        oil-producing countries in that environment, higher oil prices were 
        inevitable.    But crude oil is not merely a physical commodity that fuels the world 
        economy, powers planes, trains and automobiles, heats cities and 
        provides fuel for electricity. It has also become a valuable financial 
        asset, bought and sold in electronic exchanges by traders around the 
        world. And they, too, have helped push prices higher.    In the latest round of furious buying, hedge funds and other 
        investors have helped propel crude oil prices from around $50 a barrel 
        at the end of 2005 to a new record of $75.17 on the New York Mercantile 
        Exchange last month.    In January 2002, oil was at $18 a barrel.    With gasoline in the United States now costing more than $3 a gallon, 
        or about 80 cents a liter, energy prices may be a political liability 
        for the Bush administration. But for outside investors hedge funds, 
        investment banks, mutual funds, pension funds and the like the 
        resurgence in the oil market has been a golden opportunity.    "Gold prices don't go up just because jewelers need more gold; they 
        go up because gold is an investment," said Roger Diwan, a partner with 
        PFC Energy, a Washington-based consulting firm. "The same has happened 
        to oil."    Changes in the way oil is traded have contributed their part as well. 
        On Nymex, oil contracts held mostly by hedge funds essentially, private 
        investment vehicles for the wealthy and institutions, run by traders who 
        share the risks and rewards with their partners rose to more than 1 
        billion barrels last month, twice the amount held five years ago.    Beyond that, trading has also increased outside official exchanges, 
        including swaps or over-the-counter trades conducted directly between, 
        say, a bank and an airline. And that comes on top of the normal trading 
        long conducted by oil companies, commercial oil brokers and funds held 
        by investment banks.    "Five years ago, our futures exchange was a small group of physical 
        oil players," said Jeffrey Sprecher, the chief executive of 
        Intercontinental Exchange, the Atlanta-based electronic exchange where 
        about half of all oil futures are traded. "Now there are all sorts of 
        new investors in trading commodity futures, much of which is backed by 
        pension fund money."    Such trading is a 24-hour business. And more sophisticated electronic 
        technology allows more money to pour into oil, quicker than ever before, 
        from anywhere in the world.    In the Canary Wharf business district of London, for example, the 
        trading room of Barclays Capital was filled with mostly young men in 
        identical button-down blue shirts, staring intently at banks of computer 
        screens where the prices of petroleum products crude oil, gasoline, fuel 
        oil, naphthene and more flicker by.    Occasionally, one of the traders broke from his trance to bark 
        instructions into a black speaker box to a floor broker a couple of 
        miles away. On a television screen above the traders, President George 
        W. Bush was telling America to "get off oil."    Experienced oil traders are in heavy demand, and average salary and 
        bonus packages are close to $1 million a year, with top traders earning 
        as much as $10 million. The rush of new investors into commodities has 
        meant a rash of new clients for banks like Barclays.    Meanwhile, Lehman Brothers and Credit Suisse have recently beefed up 
        their oil trading teams to compete with market leaders like Goldman 
        Sachs and Morgan Stanley.    "Clearly, the big attraction of commodity markets like oil is that 
        they've been going up," said Marc Stern, the chief investment officer at 
        Bessemer Trust, a New York wealth manager with $45 billion in assets. 
        "Rising prices create interest."    So far this year, oil prices have gained 18 percent; they were up 45 
        percent in 2005 and 28 percent in 2004, a performance far superior than 
        the Standard & Poor's 500, whose gains in these years have been in the 
        single digits. And to some extent, the rising price of oil feeds on 
        itself, by encouraging many investors to bet that it is likely to 
        continue.    "The hedge funds have come roaring into the commodities market, and 
        they are willing to take risks," said Brad Hintz, an analyst with 
        Sanford C. Bernstein, an investment firm in New York.    Energy funds make up 5 percent of the global hedge fund business, 
        with about $60 billion in assets, according to Peter Fusaro, principal 
        at the Energy Hedge Fund Center, an online research community.    The gains on the oil market have attracted a fresh class of 
        investors: pension funds and mutual funds seeking to diversify their 
        holdings. Their investments have been mostly channeled through a handful 
        of commodity indexes, which have ballooned to $85 billion in a few 
        years, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman's own index holds more than 
        $55 billion, triple what it was in 2002.    Pension funds have been particularly active in the last year, said 
        Frederic Lasserre, the chief of commodity research at Societe Generale 
        in Paris. These investors, seeking to diversify their portfolio, have 
        added to the buying pressure on limited commodity markets.    While all this new money has contributed to higher prices by some 
        estimates perhaps as much as 10 percent to 20 percent the frantic 
        trading ensures that even the biggest players, including the major oil 
        companies, cannot significantly distort the market or tilt it 
        artificially in their favor. It also makes oil markets more liquid, 
        meaning a buyer can always find a seller.    "The oil market has been driven by speculators, by hedge funds, by 
        pension funds and commodity indexes, but the fact of the matter is that 
        it's mostly been driven by the fundamentals," said Craig Pennington, the 
        director of the global energy group at Schroders in London. "Prices are 
        supported by the fact that there is no spare capacity."    The inability to increase output fast enough to keep up with global 
        demand accounts for most of the oil price rise over the last three 
        years, analysts say. And until more investments are completed in oil 
        production and refining, markets will remain on edge, with the slightest 
        bit of bad news likely to push prices up further.    "The reality is that the world has no supply cushion left," said 
        Edward Morse, an executive adviser at Hess Energy Trading, a New York 
        oil trading firm.    Political strife and circumstance played major parts as well. A 
        crippling strike in Venezuela's oil industry in 2002, the invasion of 
        Iraq, civil unrest in Nigeria, and last summer's hurricanes in the Gulf 
        of Mexico, among other things, have all contributed to a pinching of 
        supplies.    According to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy 
        consulting firm owned by IHS, Iraq is 900,000 barrels a day below its 
        prewar output; Nigeria is off 530,000 barrels a day; Venezuela is still 
        400,000 barrels below its pre-strike production; and the Gulf of Mexico 
        remains down by 330,000 barrels a day. In all, this amounts to more than 
        two million barrels of disrupted oil supplies, Cambridge Energy 
        estimates.    The latest reason for gains on energy markets is the growing fear 
        that the diplomatic standoff between the Western powers and Iran over 
        nuclear technology will get out of hand.    "All the risk," said Eric Bolling, an independent trader on Nymex, 
        "has been on the upside."    In the end, supply and demand call the tune. "The idea that 
        speculators can systematically push the price up or down is wrong," said 
        Robert Weiner, a professor of international business at George 
        Washington University and a fellow at Resources for the Future, a 
        nonpartisan think tank. "But they can make it more volatile. They can't 
        raise water levels, but they can create waves."    Not all bets have turned out to be profitable. Veteran commodity 
        market traders have been stymied by the high prices of oil, which have 
        exceeded their expectations, and many now predict that a steep decline 
        in prices is ahead. But they have been wrong so far.      © Copyright 2006 NetContent, Inc. Duplication and 
        distribution restricted.
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