The energy crisis that befell the Northwest in 2000 and 2001 may have cost the region as much as $6 billion, and thousands of jobs as well. Few saw it coming, and none far enough ahead to build generating plants that might have averted an economic catastrophe that lingers to this day.

A new forecasting tool should improve our collective vision considerably. It is, remarkably, a first adopted in a region with homes and industries historically more dependent on electricity than those in most other areas.

The tool is a standard developed by the Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Forum - not exactly an electrifying name - composed mostly of representatives from the region's public and private utilities. Simply put, the standard matches the region's projected demand for energy against the projected resources. But much art goes into that calculation, estimating the availability of wind power, for example.

Results that indicate a 5 percent or greater chance some parts of the Northwest may come up short of power are supposed to trigger planning for generation or conservation that can be ready in five years, preferably sooner.

Forum co-chair Tom Karier, who represents Eastern Washington on the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, says the standard would have enabled planners to foresee the 2000-2001 crisis as early as 1995. With a five-year head start, utility officials would have had more than enough time to purchase natural gas-fired turbines or other resources capable of replacing the hydropower that was so desperately short by mid-2000. Instead, the region's utilities ended up bidding against each other, and against equally anxious California utilities, for what power was available.

The region had relied on electricity markets to signal a need for more power. But thanks to several years of abundant water in the Columbia River Basin, hydropower was plentiful and cheap. The year 2000, the second-driest since the 1930s, revealed just how far out of balance the supply-demand equation had become.

The Northwest was short 4,000 megawatts, enough to supply four Seattles.

The imbalance, exploited by Enron Corp. and the like, drove peak electricity prices to as high as 50 times normal.

Since 2001, the region's utilities have stocked up on megawatts the way survivalists stock up on canned goods. Generating capacity has increased by 4,000 megawatts, while the loss of power-dependent industries like aluminum smelting has reduced demand by about 3,000 megawatts.

And the forum adequacy standard looks only at energy, not the capacity to generate energy. Grand Coulee Dam can churn out thousands of extra megawatts in a pinch, but only for short periods. The forum is taking a separate look at capacity.

With all the generating capability added the last few years, much of it turbines driven by wind or natural gas, Karier says there is a less than 1 percent chance an electricity shortage will strike the Northwest today, and the risk remains low for the next few years.

How the region will respond when a shortage does look possible has not been resolved. For years the Bonneville Power Administration was the provider of last resort, but overdependence on the federal agency contributed to the crisis. It was just too easy for too many to let Bonneville do their electricity shopping.

Karier says the Northwest will stay out of trouble as long as individual utilities continually identify and acquire the cheapest new resources available to meet new load. Investor-owned utilities like Avista are required to review those options regularly. Still, there may be times when an anticipated power shortage and the wholesale price of power send different signals regarding new supplies, and what utilities should be allowed to charge for them. Developing economic benchmarks also remains on the forum agenda.

Implementation of the standards is voluntary, the potential payoffs voluminous.

"If we can avoid even one energy crisis like 2000 and 2001, we can save billions of dollars," Karier says.

Business columnist Bert Caldwell can be reached at (509) 459- 5450, or at bertc@spokesman.com.