Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 01 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 875 (S11W33) produced a long-duration C1/sf flare at 01/1535Z. Region 876 (S15W07) produced a B9/sf flare at 01/0157Z. A Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock speed of 436 Km/sec was associated with this flare.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled. Intervals of active conditions are possible.

III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May

Class M 15/15/15

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 01 May 093

Predicted 02 May-04 May 095/095/095

90 Day Mean 01 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 000/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 003/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 012/015-015/020-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/25/15

Minor storm 10/15/05

Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/30/25

Minor storm 15/20/15

Major-severe storm 05/10/05