Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 02 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 875 (S12W47) produced a B2 flare at 02/1237Z. Region 879 (N16E07) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are expected on 5 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 02 May 089

Predicted 03 May-05 May 090/090/090

90 Day Mean 02 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 008/010-008/010-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 05/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/30

Minor storm 10/10/20

Major-severe storm 01/01/10