Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 03 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 877 (S05W41) produced a B2 flare at 03/0035 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 May. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 05 - 06 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 03 May 089

Predicted 04 May-06 May 090/090/085

90 Day Mean 03 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/007-015/020-025/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/25/40

Minor storm 05/15/20

Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/30/30

Minor storm 10/20/30

Major-severe storm 01/10/15