Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 04 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. An active region on the east limb (S10E90) produced a C1 flare at 04/1745 UTC. A very faint partial halo CME was observed by LASCO starting at approximately 04/0131 UTC associated with a filament eruption (S33W07).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a single minor storm period at high latitudes from 1200 - 1500 UTC following a period of sustained southward Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three days

(05 - 07 May) with a chance for minor to major storm periods on 06 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects from today's partial halo CME.

III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 04 May 092

Predicted 05 May-07 May 090/090/090

90 Day Mean 04 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 015/020-025/030-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/40/25

Minor storm 15/20/15

Major-severe storm 05/10/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/30/30

Minor storm 20/30/20

Major-severe storm 10/15/10