Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was no activity of note in the five sunspot groups on the visible disk. All these active regions are small with simple magnetic configurations. New Region 883 (S04E56) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The disturbed conditions were associated with a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed gradually increased to over 600 km/s following the onset of the high speed stream midday on 06 May.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible on 08 May due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 09 and 10 May.

III. Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 May 086

Predicted 08 May-10 May 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 07 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 014/024

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 018/030

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 012/020-005/012-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/15/15

Minor storm 15/01/01

Major-severe storm 15/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/20/20

Minor storm 20/10/10

Major-severe storm 10/01/01